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Forex – Weekly Outlook: November 11 – 15

Forex8 hours ago (Nov 10, 2019 07:21AM ET)

© Reuters.

Investing.com – Investors will be focusing on appearances by U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week amid fresh doubts over the progress of trade talks between the U.S. and China.

Trump is due to give a speech at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, with markets hoping for more clarity on a planned “phase one” deal to end a damaging trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Powell is to testify on the economy before lawmakers in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday and is expected to reiterate that plans for further easing are now on hold after the Fed cut rates last month for the third time in as many meetings.

Several countries from Germany to Japan will release third-quarter growth data in coming days.

The U.S. is to release inflation data on Wednesday, while retail sales and industrial production data on Friday will shed light on whether the consumer can continue to drive growth in the face of a struggling manufacturing sector and months of trade tensions.

The U.S. dollar rallied to a three-week high on Friday, getting some safe-haven bids, as risk appetite for higher-yielding currencies waned with renewed uncertainty about the rollback of existing tariffs, a major component of a preliminary U.S.-China trade deal.

Trump said he had not agreed to a tariff rollback, a day after officials from both countries reportedly agreed to roll back tariffs on each others’ goods in a “phase one” trade deal if it is completed.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.21 in late trade after hitting a three-week high, led by gains against the euro, which dipped 0.3% to 1.1017.

The dollar was little changed against the Japanese yen at 109.27.

Jonas Goltermann, senior markets economist at Capital Economics in London, believes as trade tensions persist, the dollar is likely to stay strong.

“While we don’t expect relative interest rates to boost the dollar much further in the near term, we think that continued trade tensions and a slowing global economy mean that the greenback will rise a bit further in 2020 despite the fact that on a trade-weighted basis it is already near its highest level since the early 2000s,” Goltermann said.

The British pound was weaker, down 0.3% at 1.2771 amid ongoing political uncertainty in the U.K. and indications from the Bank of England that it’s ready to cut rates in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, Nov. 11

U.K. – Preliminary GDP, manufacturing production

U.S. – Bond markets closed for Veterans Day holiday; Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks

Tuesday, Nov. 12

Australia – NAB business confidence

New Zealand – Inflation expectations

U.K. – Employment report

Germany – ZEW economic sentiment

U.S. – Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks; Minneapolis Fed head Neel Kashkari speaks

Wednesday, Nov. 13

Australia – Wage price index

New Zealand – Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision

U.K. – CPI

U.S. – CPI; Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to testify before the congressional Joint Economic Committee

Thursday, Nov. 14

Australia – Employment report

China – Fixed asset investment; industrial production; retail sales

Germany – Preliminary GDP

U.K. – Retail sales

Eurozone – Revised GDP

U.S. – PPI; jobless claims; Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida speaks; Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks; Powell testifies before the House Budget Committee; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks; New York Fed President John Williams speaks; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks

Canada – Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks

Friday, Nov. 15

U.S. – Retail sales, Empire Sate manufacturing index

— Reuters contributed to this report

Forex – Weekly Outlook: November 11 – 15

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